Don’t Bet Against The Jaguars
When Jacksonville plays New England in Foxborough this weekend (Sunday, 3:05 PM, CBS), most folks are expecting a cakewalk for the Patriots, as if they’re already locks to play for the Super Bowl title in two weeks. And part of that’s almost certainly true – the Patriots should beat the Jags and advance to the final round. But don’t bet against the Jaguars.
Why not? I’m not going to argue that Jax has a very good chance to derail the Belichick-Brady pursuit of Super Bowl number 6, but the Patriots spread is at -9 at Bovada (and between -9 and -10 at just about every other online betting shop and Vegas sportsbook, including -9.5 at both BetOnline and SportsBetting), and that’s entirely too much. If you’re going to bet the spread on the Jaguars at the Pats, you should probably take the underdog.
After all, it isn’t terribly often that you even get two-score spreads in the NFL playoffs, and it’s even rarer that New England – in their current era of excellence – actually blow their playoff opponents out of the water (excepting, of course, last week against the obviously overmatched Tennessee Titans). And based on what Jacksonville did to the heavily-favored Steelers in the Divisional round, there’s no question that any deviation from an all-out assault – any playing to “protect a lead” – is a bad plan for Patriot Nation.
Injury-wise, both teams are as healthy as they’ve been all year, with New England enjoying Rob Gronkowski’s play so far this postseason. And after a three TD performance on the ground against the Steelers (with one score coming after he hurt his ankle), Jacksonville’s ROY candidate Leonard Fournette is a force to be reckoned with – a force that the NE run defense might not be able to fully contain. Granted New England’s scoring defense has been far better than the Steelers’ down the stretch, if Jags QB Blake Bortles has a reasonably mistake-free game, it’s difficult to see the Pats trouncing Jax by 9 or more on the scoreboard. The safe bet, at least right now, is to take Jacksonville and the points, which currently pays out +100 (even) at Bovada. Jacksonville straight up, even at a profitable +325, is pretty risky, but the Pats straight up isn’t particularly compelling at -450 either. LegalGamblingUSA thinks the only real question mark is the game’s 46.5 O/U, as the Jags just scored 45 last week, while the Patriots hung 35 on the Titans. The over seems in order.
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